Equity market was higher this week with S&P 500 up around 3.55%, and finished the week above resistance line connected from May 11th, 2010. At t...
Equity market was higher this week with S&P 500 up around 3.55%, and finished the week above resistance line connected from May 11th, 2010. At the same time the prices moved and closed above the 50 day SMA, for the first time since early May when S&P was falling from its highs. Technically the stocks market is now headed higher, towards the 1140 region, as we also pointed out in one of our past newsletters. In fact, markets now have a reason to move higher as the European Street tests results were positive, and only 7 of 91 banks failed the test, less than analysts expected. But the next question is how high can the market go and how investors see the European Stress tests results. Was the stress test too easy, and markets may react negatively?! Well, I am not fundamental analyst, so all I can say that time will tell if banks have enough of capital or not. Anyway, let’s see what the Elliott Waves are telling us.
Technical and “psychological” turning point on the stock market is still on my radar as I count five waves down from 1220 top to 1010 lows, followed by an upward bounce, which I believe it’s only a correction, black wave II in our case. Recently the sub-wave (C) of wave II got underway, which is now trading towards the 61.8% retracement level of a previous decline and also 100% projective level of wave (A), measured from wave (B) 1056 low. The upward target and also the significant resistance zone at the same time is around 1030-1040 region, around wave (4) top. If wave count is correct, then a turning point from there should send the S&P 500 back down, towards the 1010 region and even lower, while the 1220 top is in place.
S&P daily chart : I:2:T
So, with S&P moving towards the 1030-1040 region, then Aud/Usd, which is one of the most correlated pairs with the U.S stocks market, should also move higher in the next week or two. Upside region that I will pay attention on is 125 pip range, 0.9050-0.9175 region, where upward price action shown from 0.8065 may find a top, since the structure looks clearly corrective, double zig-zag pattern.
Aud/Usd daily chart:
Euro is also showing a significant up-trend from 1.1875 low, and it looks that bulls are not done yet, either the upward structure is unfinished impulse wave or double zig-zag pattern. Move above the 1.3030 is expected considering to Aud/Usd and S&P wave counts, but the question is if wave (B) has already bottomed at 1.2730 region or not! We will wait till Monday, before we send any signal to our subscribers, because firstly we need to see how European markets will react to stress tests results; test was for European banks, remember?!
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The story was once told by a proud father of his young boy who previously had no business sense or acumen what so ever. It seems that this young lad had parlayed a meager sum of his money and cash into a rather large sum of funds simply by changing his wealth on a regular basis from one currency to another. As the young fellow instructed his father. Anyone can do it. You simply read the newspaper for current currency rates. It does not cost anything. Then I went to the bank and purchased traveler’s checks , which to his good fortune his bank included in his service fee package. If the paper told me that dollars went up , I cashed in my US dollar denominated Amex travelers checks. If British pound sterling was low , I would use those funds to buy units in that currency. Add in Japanese Yen and E.U. European money into the mix , and all in all you have a simple explanation of forex , foreign currency trading. Interestingly the young man was able to place down a substantial down payment for a substantial new home in Coquitlam Canada.
What is the simple basis of forex currency trading. Its that currencies reflect the health of the economies of their respective countries or regions. If a country is stable economically as well as politically and yet it currency seems to be undervalued in terms of comparison to other major indexes of both the countries it trades its products or services with , or if overall that countries issued standards of conversions seems way out of whack – either too high or too low – then it may well be the time and opportunity of the active financial currency trader to either be in ( that is to acquire) or redeem or even relinquish his or her’s monetary holdings in that fund.
It used to be that forex – the trading of foreign currencies was a highly specialized series of financial products only available to major corporations and governments. If a retail customer was “lucky” enough to get involved via a syndicate setup at their stock brokerage of choice – that was their good or bad fortune. The national banks of many large or even unsubstantial countries are also involved in these commodities , either as fiscal policy to shore up or regulate varying national and international currency levels and values. Major firms would also “hedge” their bets by purchasing different brands and forms of financial valuations and instruments in an effort to remove risks and variations in their export product pricing levels.
Not to get caught up for rank forex foreign currency novice and beginner traders who think that but of course markets – be they of retail goods, consumables , investments , stocks , bonds and in this case foreign denominated currency holdings are driven by strict facts and analysis of these facts think again. Most markets are driven by greed and human emotion and emotions. Put panic , and investors getting carried away with their limited skills and perceptions as well as the human foible of overextending themselves financially and you have a recipe for disaster for some , and huge profits to made on forex trading conversions for others. The refrain for some of “how much lower can this currency go” – be it Mexican Pesos , US dollars or others – is that often the bottom has not been reached yet.
Forex trading is not for everyone , nor the weak of heart. Speak to knowledgeable investors who have been in a varied grocery basket and index of differing forms of investments and financial products. Experience tops all . Benefit from both their good and bad insights. Forex can be seen as a gold mine or it can be seen as gambling. If there are several rules to follow they are , do your homework , check your facts , limit your exposure to any one currency holding and lastly don’t “invest” what you cannot afford to “lose
